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Thread: Sandy

  1. #31
    Unfunded content provider tommcgee's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rpbump View Post
    Mother Nature again sends a message that ignoring storm warnings and not preparing for these events can be folly and even deadly.
    There's a major issue here. The National Hurricane Center REFUSED to issue any warnings once the storm was north of North Carolina. There were NEVER any hurricane and tropical storm warnings issued by NHC since they insisted it was changing into a "post tropical cyclone" and was not their "jurisdiction". They turned all the responsibility for warnings over to local NWS offices, who did issue wind warnings, but not hurricane warnings.

    The reality here is that it slammed into the coast as a full hurricane nearly a thousand miles wide. Totally irresponsible and beyond moronic.

    More detail here from Accuweather: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weathe...er-no-a/839301
    Salty Fog Rally 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012, AND LOOKING FORWARD TO 2014!

    -Tom (KA1TOX)

  2. #32
    Benchwrenching PGlaves's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tommcgee View Post
    There's a major issue here. The National Hurricane Center REFUSED to issue any warnings once the storm was north of North Carolina. There were NEVER any hurricane and tropical storm warnings issued by NHC since they insisted it was changing into a "post tropical cyclone" and was not their "jurisdiction". They turned all the responsibility for warnings over to local NWS offices, who did issue wind warnings, but not hurricane warnings.

    The reality here is that it slammed into the coast as a full hurricane nearly a thousand miles wide. Totally irresponsible and beyond moronic.

    More detail here from Accuweather: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weathe...er-no-a/839301
    That is all just silly finger pointing. Nobody but a hermit in a cave or somebody living in the NYC steam tunnels would have been surprised by this storm. The handoff from the Hurricane Center to the NOAA National Weather Service did not alter the news coverage one bit. Everything I saw or read said this was going to be an unprecedented storm (with high winds, storm surge, major flooding, power outages, and trees toppling) for almost the entire Northeast U.S.

    The handoff from one agency to another, while silly maybe, is really no different that the air traffic control enroute center handing off a flight to approach, and then to tower.
    Paul Glaves - "Big Bend", Texas U.S.A
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  3. #33
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    The storm was unprecedented and so was the lack of hurricane warnings, the sole responsibility of the NHC. I read their stupid refusal when it was issued on 27 October. It has disappeared or been buried on their website. It's irresponsible. A mariner expects to see hurricane flags flyings and hear hurricane warnings announced on weather radio. There's no excuse for NHC to bow out while the storm is still a tropical cyclone, which it was when it hit the coast.
    Salty Fog Rally 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012, AND LOOKING FORWARD TO 2014!

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  4. #34
    04 1150RS bigsur52's Avatar
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    Hey tommcgee,

    wtf are you talking about? The NHC predicted this storm perfectly from 2 days out before landfall. That is unusual. Take your hatered of the federal governent and brew yourself some tea!
    "all things in moderation - including moderation"

  5. #35
    Registered User 36654's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tommcgee View Post
    There's a major issue here. The National Hurricane Center REFUSED to issue any warnings once the storm was north of North Carolina. There were NEVER any hurricane and tropical storm warnings issued by NHC since they insisted it was changing into a "post tropical cyclone" and was not their "jurisdiction". They turned all the responsibility for warnings over to local NWS offices, who did issue wind warnings, but not hurricane warnings.

    The reality here is that it slammed into the coast as a full hurricane nearly a thousand miles wide. Totally irresponsible and beyond moronic.

    More detail here from Accuweather: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weathe...er-no-a/839301
    Tom,

    Accuweather is a local for-profit company that at one time tried to get legislation introduced in congress to de-fund NOAA and spend the money at private services like themselves. I suggest a bit of caution in following their lead.
    Cave contents: 99 R11RS, 2013 Toyota Tacoma, 03 Simplicity Legacy, 97 Stihl FS75, Dewalt DW625 & DW744

  6. #36
    Unfunded content provider tommcgee's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 36654 View Post
    Tom,

    Accuweather is a local for-profit company that at one time tried to get legislation introduced in congress to de-fund NOAA and spend the money at private services like themselves. I suggest a bit of caution in following their lead.
    I'm well aware of who they are and I read the NHC statement a full day before Accuweather said anything about it. I would have posted the NHC statement here if they didn't remove it from their website. The Accuweather staement is the only reference I can now find about what happened.

    And no, I don't hate government, but fully expect them to do their job. NWS did, NHC did not. Sorry, guys, I'm too much of a weather geek.
    Salty Fog Rally 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012, AND LOOKING FORWARD TO 2014!

    -Tom (KA1TOX)

  7. #37
    Registered User 36654's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tommcgee View Post
    I'm well aware of who they are and I read the NHC statement a full day before Accuweather said anything about it. I would have posted the NHC statement here if they didn't remove it from their website. The Accuweather staement is the only reference I can now find about what happened.

    And no, I don't hate government, but fully expect them to do their job. NWS did, NHC did not. Sorry, guys, I'm too much of a weather geek.
    Brownie says it was called an emergency too early........... So, there
    Cave contents: 99 R11RS, 2013 Toyota Tacoma, 03 Simplicity Legacy, 97 Stihl FS75, Dewalt DW625 & DW744

  8. #38
    Unfunded content provider tommcgee's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by 36654 View Post
    Brownie says it was called an emergency too early........... So, there
    Yeah, that was ripe!
    Salty Fog Rally 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012, AND LOOKING FORWARD TO 2014!

    -Tom (KA1TOX)

  9. #39
    A bozo on the bus deilenberger's Avatar
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    Just a few thoughts from someone who was effected by Sandy..

    - The comments blaming the residents are in rather poor taste IMHO. Cities and towns did what they could to prepare, fully knowing the effort they could take wouldn't change things a lot.

    - Residents were watching storm predictions with a 500 mile radius from where the storm was predicted to hit land (about in my backyard, turns out to be about 70 miles south.) Where and how would you evacuate about 20,000,000 people (NJ, all of NY, all of DE and most of MD and CT) to - and how would you do it?

    - We did have advance warning, but the science of weather prediction being what it is - any action taken on the warning as far as evacuation could well have put people in more danger, since the predicted landfall of the storm bounced around 3 states before it finally did hit land.

    - I'm a permanant resident of 36 years, 12 blocks from the ocean. I'm OK. Lost a few trees some minor damage, but the local infrastructure isn't. Power is out to about 96% of NJ residents. THINK about that. Why? Some blame must be put on the for-profit utilities (there was a reason for the "natural monopoly" idea of utility services) - friends who work for them often talk about deferred or no maintenance being done to aging infrastructure, despite record profits by the utility companies (think there is a link there? I do..) The prediction is 7-10 days to restore power, and I will predict it will take a good deal longer then that. Without power - there is no gasoline, no supermarket for food, no refrigeration. Having a geenerator is a luxury people in urban areas really can't take advantage of - running one inside an apartment isn't really considered healthy.

    - Do we need better coastal planning and protection? That answer is fairly obvious, but profit motives are what drove the development that was at fault before, and I don't see any prediction or recommendation to change that. The talk now is "coming back" - not fixing the problem to reduce the potential for the same thing happening in another year or two.

    Anyway - enough lecture. Those of us in the areas hit by this disaster would appreciate your thoughts and help. If that's not possible, at least don't throw stones at the suffering. Every area has the potential for natural disasters - and it's by helping each other that we can get though this... not by pointing fingers.

    Obligatory BMW Content - I used my R1200R to recharge my cell phone.. thanks to a BurnsMoto USB charging port I added a few weeks ago. Thought it might be a handy thing to have - never imagining how valuable it would turn out to be.
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  10. #40
    Unfunded content provider tommcgee's Avatar
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    Hey Don, dunno how to fix it, but ten years ago I took a plane ride from Providence to Baltimore right down the coast and could not believe the development. All I could think about then was what would and did happen during this storm.

    People will obviously want to rebuild but why would they when it could easily happen again in their lifetimes? Should the cities and towns issue building permits? I've seen plenty of this type of coastal damage in Massachusetts. Some towns actually did refuse to issue permits in certain places, but it's nowhere near the scale facing New Jersey.

    Hang in there, man, I know we dodged a big one in Massachusetts.
    Salty Fog Rally 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012, AND LOOKING FORWARD TO 2014!

    -Tom (KA1TOX)

  11. #41
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    Don,
    Really glad to see a post from you indicating you guys are safe and got off with only the inconvenience, as much of a nuisance as it is. Knowing where you live, its a good thing this wasn't a really powerful storm (big, yes bot not so powerful). Both winds and surge can get a lot worse than came with Sandy. Hope things get back to normal in Spring Lake as soon as possible.

    Some comments on the other stuff
    1) The NWS guys do superb, highly detailed local and extremely accurate work. AccuWesther and similar are pretty much a joke by comparison in you compare for accuracy over time. The NWS discussion page is my first and most important weather summary- from there its direct to real time satellite and radar info or NHS as needed. AccuWeather and its cute apps aren't even on my list...(Used to keep a printer set up to pull the marine fax from shortwave transmissions years ago when I fished offshore, don't need that any more- but still sometimes listen to the marine info on our local NOAA channel and look at the offshore buoy data being transmitted).

    2) Yes there is a lot of really stupid building on the coast- driven by greed of locals, mostly, then reinforced by interest of folks foolish enough to buy there without wanting to take personal responsibility for a foolish choice. But one needs to remember that NYC infrastructure layout is very old and much of that poorly situated and low-built housing in NJ has been there 50 yrs or more so predates much of the ocean level changes and weather shifts that have tilted risks in the past years.

    Perhaps this storm will serve as a wakeup but I doubt it. It is possible with big expense to protect small areas like cities, even NY, though it would cost probably $20 billion minimum to do anything useful. It is also possible to build on pilings in beach towns to minimize surge damage. But in the long run the only real answer for anything other than a few areas is to get off the beach..
    Personally, I put subsidizing the insurance and perpetual rebuilding of beach places repetitively leveled offensive. Much of the recent waves have been funny money building Mc-mansions intended as investment and rental- I see no reason for those well inland to subsidize the mostly wealthy and well off folks doing this. In the old days and style, some families built to live at the beach as a main residence but that is not the prime driver of a lot of current development. An example of a location with both types of building is parts of Long Beach Island in NJ- a lot of it has been severely damaged in previous storms and rebuilt and it has small percent of year round residents with a huge summer influx of almost 10X that number- from Philly and other metro places nearby.

    3) Ocean front changes have always happened and at present are happening at an accelerated rate. One could argue about how much of that is human caused but it is real and not a figment of imagination. There are islands in Cheasapeake Bay that are going under water slowly and the cost to artificially maintain barrier islands sand in place is getting so high even the feds are shucking it off to local govts that literally cannot afford it- so they're looking to state govts which won't want to waste huge resources on what will be a loosing effort over the long term. Satellite photos make clear the effects of warming- the breakup and loss of the worlds huge ice masses means that water has to go someplace and even the low end estimates show mean sea level up another 3 ft in the next 50 years. All of us might be dead of old age before being hit by the impacts of this but it is coming- for our kids and theirs. 3 ft doesn't sound like much but is close to half the height of Sandy's storm surge and would be the new baseline to which any surge height gets added- it is a huge change.

  12. #42
    Benchwrenching PGlaves's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by deilenberger View Post
    Just a few thoughts from someone who was effected by Sandy..

    - The comments blaming the residents are in rather poor taste IMHO. Cities and towns did what they could to prepare, fully knowing the effort they could take wouldn't change things a lot.
    It is obvious, and almost always the case that the residents are the victims. It is primarily the local governments and some businesses that have dropped or hidden the ball for years and years. As early as 1974 most flood hazard areas were identified and attempts were made to encourage local governments to use rudimentary controls. That failed. Later the federally subsidized flood insurance program required local governments to limit development in flood hazard areas or the entire community would not be eligible for flood insurance. Developers and local governments found many creative ways around these rules. Using Katrina as an example - current law says that if a property is substantially damaged (more than 50% of pre-flood value) it cannot be rebuilt unless elevated above the flood hazard elevation or flood proofed to that elevation. The kicker is that as of just a few years ago they were still using 1938 meteorology data to set those elevations. Whoops! So in New Orleans we see houses going on stilts but some being rebuilt with waivers.

    Anybody who lives in a community that had flooding ought to go downtown and ask to see the Flood Plain Ordinance and ask what if any waivers have been granted in the past ten years.

    Compared to most developed European and Asian countries our power grid is a mess. A few years ago one line sagged into one tree in Ohio and the resulting cascade of shutdowns caused power out in almost the entire Northeast. It is a little better now, but we still have a mid-20th century grid for the 21st century. Whoever thought underground substations in flood prone areas was smart needs to rethink their logic. And the sad thing is that unless there is massive investment (which will raise electric bills a lot) it will take decades to improve the situation much.

    Not directly related to Sandy (yet, but wait) it is a fact that 70% of the bridges in this country are rated structurally deficient, and the number keeps climbing every year. Our next "Minneapolis I-35" disaster is not a matter of if, it is only a matter of when. But as citizens a majority insists on lower taxes so the states and localities absolutely lack the ability to raise the funds needed to fix or replace worn out bridges 20 years past their planned life cycle.

    I feel fairly safe on most bridges when on my motorcycle, but shudder when crossing some of them meeting loaded semi trucks. I figure I am unlikely to take the bridge out but don't know about the trucks.

    Right now we need immediate relief for the victims of Sandy. But then instead of settling into our less is more and everything is roses viewpoints, as a society we need to figure out how to address decades long infrastructure neglect. I'm fairly sure that in a few enlightened spots we might, but in the main we won't.
    Paul Glaves - "Big Bend", Texas U.S.A
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  13. #43
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    I agree with much of what has been said already. As far as the folks that [thought] they were far enough inland, and just got surprised by this freakishly large storm,..for sure they have my sympathy..and i hope they can get their lives back to normal...ASAP!

    As for the folks that build on a barrier island, or on the waters edge of the mainland?..what did they really expect??

    Should we the tax-payers bail them out...I think not,...we already carry some of the load for insurance . I firmly believe the Ins. companies spread the cost all around, so that [those] policy's are kept [somewhat] less expensive. Ins. companies by their very nature, are not going to take-it-on-the-chin...so to speak.

    And the Gov,backed loans?,....that's our money...........jus'sayin.

  14. #44
    Roadster Rider sjbmw's Avatar
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    Don, good to cyber-hear from you.

    I doubt there is any private owned or public owned power grid that could have withstood the onslaught of Sandy. We are talking a 700 mile wide hurricane. 700 miles!

    When you have hundreds and hundreds of trees falling on hundreds and hundreds of wires, that all need to be repaired individually, these repairs require time. Closer to the beach, power stations were wiped out. Who can design a transformer station to operate under water?

    I think we are learning that the only true protection we have is what we plan for ourselves. Expecting any other institution (public or private) to take care of us in a disaster is an unrealistic expectation. The private is driven by money, and the public is driven by politics. As we saw with Katrina, and now Sandy, both will leave the citizen in the lurch.

    Bloomberg is staging gasoline, generators, and other provisions (with a cold and starving Staten Island a few miles away) to put on the NYC Marathon. No matter our opinion of this decision pro or con, it still puts Staten Island relief under the whims of a politician. The private sector could produce the same bad result, albeit for different reasons, but to claim one is better than the other is missing the point.

    One thing I am 100% sure of: The doomsday preppers don't look so crazy anymore.
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  15. #45
    Unfunded content provider tommcgee's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by racer7 View Post
    Some comments on the other stuff
    1) The NWS guys do superb, highly detailed local and extremely accurate work. AccuWesther and similar are pretty much a joke by comparison in you compare for accuracy over time. The NWS discussion page is my first and most important weather summary- from there its direct to real time satellite and radar info or NHS as needed. AccuWeather and its cute apps aren't even on my list...(
    NWS is at the top of my list as well, it's been my browser startup page for years. Accuweather is just another source out of the 15 WX bookmarks I use and I don't go there every day. I disagree with you on their forecast accuracy, else I wouldn't go there at all. I only pay attention to a couple of their guys, Nexrad and Sat maps tell me pretty much everything I want to know. http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/ is also very good as an app or webpage.
    Salty Fog Rally 2007, 2009, 2011, 2012, AND LOOKING FORWARD TO 2014!

    -Tom (KA1TOX)

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