What the @#$% is with October

[88bmwJeff]

Here's a weird coincidence.

The Crash of 1929 was in October
Black Monday was in October 1987
Current Stock Market crash October 2008

Both 1987 and current crash are before elections; however, this was not the case in 1929. The elections were a year earlier (1928).

Here's some more observations.

In the stock market crash of 1929, the DOW went from a high of ±381 in October 1929 to ±43 in June 1932. It wasn’t until November 1954, 25 years later, that the DOW came back to the previous high. The stock market lost about 89% of its value from October 1929 to June 1932. So far we have lost ±40% of the value from the high of ±14,100 in October 2007 to today (Based on DOW of ±8,451). If the DOW looses 89% like it did after the crash of 29, then the DOW is headed to ±1,550.

Here’s another twist. Over the last ±10 years, our economy existed on cheap credit with individuals spending the equity in their homes. Also, real income dropped during this time frame. So the market needs to correct for what people can afford based on their income. If you trend line the DOW from 1985 to 1995 forward to today, the DOW should be about ±7,500.

Who knows where were headed, but I still think it’s down at this point.

:cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry

[JK]

Here's a weird coincidence.

The Crash of 1929 was in October
Black Monday was in October 1987
Current Stock Market crash October 2008

Both 1987 and current crash are before elections; however, this was not the case in 1929. The elections were a year earlier (1928).

Here's some more observations.

In the stock market crash of 1929, the DOW went from a high of ±381 in October 1929 to ±43 in June 1932. It wasn’t until November 1954, 25 years later, that the DOW came back to the previous high. The stock market lost about 89% of its value from October 1929 to June 1932. So far we have lost ±40% of the value from the high of ±14,100 in October 2007 to today (Based on DOW of ±8,451). If the DOW looses 89% like it did after the crash of 29, then the DOW is headed to ±1,550.

Here’s another twist. Over the last ±10 years, our economy existed on cheap credit with individuals spending the equity in their homes. Also, real income dropped during this time frame. So the market needs to correct for what people can afford based on their income. If you trend line the DOW from 1985 to 1995 forward to today, the DOW should be about ±7,500.

Who knows where were headed, but I still think it’s down at this point.

:cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry :cry

"Cheap credit" is only half the equation. It only supplies the leverage. At fault is the fulcrum of greed (morals and ethics), as hidden by the mantra of globalization.

Specifically, without bounderies and limits, human behavior becomes uncivilized. Ayn Rand's capitalistic uptopia assumes noble goals and virtues driven by a business ethic for earned profits.

Conversely, this crash was driven by the use and abuse of credit (somebody else's money), where bogus financial instruments were created and kited, and where investment institutions thought nothing of placing bets that totalled 30 times their net worth in the pursuit of an ever larger pot of gold.

Moreover, world currencies were debased by the unregulated flipping and inflation of TRILLIONS of dollars of worthless SWAPS, the obligations of which we are currently trying to bail out.

In short, the noble pursuit of profits and tangible business ventures has been corrupted by the smoke and mirrors of snake oil merchants in their Ponzi scheme to become "masters of the Universe."


J.K. :wow

[shoeman]

Raindrops on roses and whiskers on kittens
Bright copper kettles and warm woolen mittens
Brown paper packages tied up with strings
These are a few of my favorite things

Cream colored ponies and crisp apple streudels
Doorbells and sleigh bells and schnitzel with noodles
Wild geese that fly with the moon on their wings
These are a few of my favorite things

Girls in white dresses with blue satin sashes
Snowflakes that stay on my nose and eyelashes
Silver white winters that melt into springs
These are a few of my favorite things

When the dog bites
When the bee stings
When I'm feeling sad
I simply remember my favorite things
And then I don't feel so bad

[GrafikFeat]

Here's a weird coincidence.
Aren't most fiscal years ending in October?

:banghead

[DarkCloud]

I got married in October. Does that count?

Cheaper and cheaper money kept the economy afloat. As loans approached 0% you knew the proverbial XXXX was going to hit the fan.

Something like 2% of the home loans defaulted. Somebody at work said that it would cost something like $2300 per person to save the banking industry. That's too much money to be realistic. The homes couldn't have been worth that much.

Any banks board of directors fired their CEO's? Try and borrow some money to buy a house today, the banks have money to loan. Why are we worried about banks going broke? Look at the health industry, doesn't your health insurance premium support their industry, along with electric, gas, and other utilities?

The stock market, when dividends divided by the price of the stock equal the rate of return you want, then you buy the stock. Who cares about the DOW? If you care about the DOW, have your broker sell short on a margin account.

I say start with the simple stuff, like having employers audit their employees tax deductions. How many people claim married and 9? Make them prove it. Think of all the money that would be generated by people paying their fair share instead of going married 9 all year long then not filing taxes.

JON

[ARValkguy]

Dude, man it's the Karma man. It's all preordained in the stars man. We need to promote positive vibes man. We gotta think about it man, dude I went an got a Tarot reading and this Mage told me that my life was overloaded with positive vibes. October is the harvest season man and the stars determine what happens man. It's all about the tides and the moon and the stars and the power of positive thought. These stock market dudes are probably eating meat and clouding up their CHI and stuff man. All these negative waves from this election stuff man, we just need to all get along and love one another. Love is the key man. Man what does the market do anyway but promote the dislocation of the masses man. It's all about the people man and the hope man. Dude it is like Autumn and the leaves turning and with the falling of the leaves, dude like new leaves grow and stuff and man the stock market is like a big oak tree, man that has been cut buy a big logging company man. It's all about the corporations man and the greed of the few overpowering the working class, man. We need to put like all the money in like a big pot and let everyone have some man then we could all have the same and no division among the classes man. The class system is the ruination of the common good dude. Man it all about the global world man, we need to take care of each other man. Dude don't blame October man, it is just a month man soon we will all be rewarded with a new tide man, we are gonna change our attitudes man, we are all gonna have the life we all dreamed of. Who needs college or education man. I live in a country that will reward my mediocrity man. You just wait man in a short time it is all gonna change man, you wait and see man.

kelly(sorry could not help myself)

[108625]

Aren't most fiscal years ending in October?

:banghead

The Federal government's fiscal year begins 01 October and ends 30 September.

[Oldhway]

Dude, man it's the Karma man. It's all preordained in the stars man. We need to promote positive vibes man. We gotta think about it man, dude I went an got a Tarot reading and this Mage told me that my life was overloaded with positive vibes. October is the harvest season man and the stars determine what happens man. It's all about the tides and the moon and the stars and the power of positive thought. These stock market dudes are probably eating meat and clouding up their CHI and stuff man. All these negative waves from this election stuff man, we just need to all get along and love one another. Love is the key man. Man what does the market do anyway but promote the dislocation of the masses man. It's all about the people man and the hope man. Dude it is like Autumn and the leaves turning and with the falling of the leaves, dude like new leaves grow and stuff and man the stock market is like a big oak tree, man that has been cut buy a big logging company man. It's all about the corporations man and the greed of the few overpowering the working class, man. We need to put like all the money in like a big pot and let everyone have some man then we could all have the same and no division among the classes man. The class system is the ruination of the common good dude. Man it all about the global world man, we need to take care of each other man. Dude don't blame October man, it is just a month man soon we will all be rewarded with a new tide man, we are gonna change our attitudes man, we are all gonna have the life we all dreamed of. Who needs college or education man. I live in a country that will reward my mediocrity man. You just wait man in a short time it is all gonna change man, you wait and see man.

kelly(sorry could not help myself)

Dude!!. I'm totally like, jazzed on your vibe man. With the moon in retrograde and mars rising, the money dudes are like, so out a touch. We don't need that capitalistic downer!

What did I just say?

[xp8103]

[QUOTE=JK;378228
Specifically, without bounderies and limits, human behavior becomes uncivilized. Ayn Rand's capitalistic uptopia assumes noble goals and virtues driven by a business ethic for earned profits.


J.K. :wow[/QUOTE]

Funny, you can replace Capitalistic utpoipa with Socialistic Utopia and business ethic for earned profits with personal ethic for shared profits and it still works.

[535is]

I got married in October. Does that count?
No. You made that choice. I got born in October. Just barely. Almost ended up in November (couple of hours' difference). That makes me a Scorpio born on Halloween. Make of that what you will.
I say start with the simple stuff, like having employers audit their employees tax deductions. How many people claim married and 9? Make them prove it. Think of all the money that would be generated by people paying their fair share instead of going married 9 all year long then not filing taxes.
Pointless and stupid.

A.) Far more people are over-withheld than under-withheld. As a bankruptcy lawyer, I am stunned and saddened to regularly see people coming in after years of getting $4000-$6000+ tax refunds because the popular notion is "You need a big refund!" My question to them is, "Would an additional ($300-$500) a month in your pocket have helped your situation?" The obvious answer is, "YES!" So I tell them to change their W4s to reflect the real situation, not 'Married - 0'. The IRS isn't going to shortchange itself much in those withholding tables, but plenty of people sure are willing to do it to themselves. I also ask them what they did with their big refunds. The answer is almost invariably "Paid old bills." :rolleyes

When they change withheld taxes from an interest-free loan to the government for a year to something more attractive (like paying interest on my refunds), then I'll consider changing my advice. Until then, it's "Why would you want to lend your money, interest free, to those morons?"

B.) Far more people pay their taxes than don't, regardless of how much they owe. The IRS also assesses late payment penalties for those significantly under-withheld. DAMHIK.

[Artiee]

As a bankruptcy lawyer, I am stunned and saddened to regularly see people coming in after years of getting $4000-$6000+ tax refunds because the popular notion is "You need a big refund!"

I have to agree with that -- people getting so exicted over the government giving back to them their own money.

The PERFECT Tax Return is $0.00 owed / $0.00 refund -- you didn't pay too much and you didn't under pay. You got to keep your money in your pocket.

Now if they would slightly adjust the tax brackets so I could achieve that magic $0.00. For the past several years, if I reduce my withholdings by one, I end up owing around $1,500.00. If I keep my withholdings where they currently are, I get back around $1,500.00. Since I can't achieve $0.00, I'd rather Uncle Sam cut me a check instead of me sending him one.

I'm right about were I need to be for the best return.

I also ask them what they did with their big refunds. The answer is almost invariably "Paid old bills."

My returns have always gone into home repairs / improvements. Last year repaired a collapsing retaining wall, the year before repaired my driveway. The next one will go to replace old rain gutters.

Yea, I know....I should use it for my motorcycle, but a household of six can't live out of a motorcycle very well. :nyah

[BeemerMike]

Funny, you can replace Capitalistic utpoipa with Socialistic Utopia and business ethic for earned profits with personal ethic for shared profits and it still works.

Ah, the symmetrical beauty of tosspot ambiguity. " :brow "

[osbornk]

when you get to be an old fa** and use your 401K or IRA for some of your retirement, you are limited in what you can do about withholding. They require a mandatory 20% be withheld. If I take a little from my savings, I come out close but if I make a substantial withdrawal, I get a large refund. Uncle takes care of himself.

[wsteinborn]

The answer: I was born in October

That is why it is a cursed month.........

[Oldhway]

I was drinking Hofbrau Oktoberfest and was enlightened to become an S cooperation and have it buy everything I own and employ me at 15,000 dollars a year so I can live on food stamps. Am I clouded in thought ?


:hide

Most likely:D

[535is]

Now if they would slightly adjust the tax brackets so I could achieve that magic $0.00. For the past several years, if I reduce my withholdings by one, I end up owing around $1,500.00. If I keep my withholdings where they currently are, I get back around $1,500.00. Since I can't achieve $0.00, I'd rather Uncle Sam cut me a check instead of me sending him one.

I'm right about were I need to be for the best return.
Change it in January and July every year ...